San Francisco defeated Chicago 4-2 on February 22, 2026, at Scottsdale Stadium, with the Giants building a lead through early and middle innings before holding off a late Cubs push. The DiamondIQ model opened with San Francisco as a modest favorite at 54% pre-game win probability, and by game's end that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting how thoroughly the Giants controlled the outcome despite a relatively close final line.
The decisive swing came in the top of the ninth, when Ariel Armas grounded into a double play off John Michael Bertrand, a play that shed 24.4 percentage points from Chicago's win probability and effectively ended any realistic hope of a comeback. That play proved more damaging than the Cubs' most productive sequence, the top of the seventh, when James Triantos reached on a fielder's choice off Wilkin Ramos for a +11.3% WPA swing that helped Chicago plate two runs in that frame. A walk drawn by Kane Kepley in the ninth added 10.6 percentage points for Chicago, but it amounted to little once Armas hit into the twin killing. Kepley's groundout in the seventh off Hunter Dryden had already cost the Cubs 13.5 points of win probability, stalling a potential rally at a critical moment.
Among the game's standout performers, Triantos led all batters with a +17.9% WPA and +1.2 RE24, while Brett Bateman contributed +17.0% WPA and +1.1 RE24 for San Francisco. Christian Koss posted the best run-environment figure of the day at +1.6 RE24 to go with +13.6% WPA. On the pitching side, Hunter Dryden led the Giants staff with +13.5% WPA, while Will Bednar added +8.1% and Reiver Sanmartin contributed +6.4% in what was a collective effort to protect the San Francisco advantage. The Cubs finished with nine hits against no errors, but the Giants' 4-2 win was never seriously threatened after the sixth.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.