The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Houston Astros 6-5 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on February 22, 2026, handing Houston a loss after the DiamondIQ model's estimate had opened with a 54 percent pre-game win probability favoring the home side. St. Louis built the bulk of its advantage in the third inning, where Yohel Pozo delivered a double off Roddery Muñoz that shifted win probability 15.7 points in the Cardinals' favor, and Rainiel Rodriguez followed with another double off Muñoz adding a further 6.5 points. That four-run third inning, combined with a two-run fifth, gave St. Louis a cushion that would prove just sufficient.
Houston mounted a serious threat in the bottom of the ninth, scoring three runs and drawing the deficit to one before Darlin Saladin faced Cardinals reliever Darlin Saladin in what became the decisive sequence. Josh Wakefield's single off Saladin moved the needle 13.4 points toward Houston, tightening the game considerably, but a strikeout of Justin Thomas Jr. by Saladin swung win probability 21.4 points back toward St. Louis and effectively sealed the outcome. Jack Winkler's second-inning home run off Kyle Leahy had earlier contributed a 7.8-point swing for Houston, accounting for their first run of the game.
Among the top individual performers, Justin Thomas Jr. finished as the game's leader in WPA at plus-19.6 percent despite a RE24 of negative-0.6, reflecting his role in the tense late-inning drama. Yohel Pozo posted plus-17.8 percent WPA alongside a RE24 of plus-2.2, making him the Cardinals' most productive offensive contributor by both measures. On the pitching side, Max Rajcic led St. Louis relievers with plus-8.0 percent WPA, followed by Chris Roycroft at plus-4.9 percent. The DiamondIQ model closed with a 0 percent win probability for Houston, a complete reversal from where the evening began.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.