The Chicago White Sox defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 5-2 on February 22, 2026, at Camelback Ranch, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Chicago's win probability moving from a pre-game 54% all the way to 100% by the final out. The game was largely a pitchers' duel through five innings, with Milwaukee scratching out a run in the first on Akil Baddoo's home run in the third off Jordan Leasure standing as the Brewers' most impactful offensive moment. That solo shot carried a win-probability swing of +10.5% and made Baddoo one of the night's most consequential offensive performers, finishing with a team-leading +2.1 RE24 and +15.7% WPA despite his team falling short.
The contest turned decisively in the bottom of the sixth inning, when the White Sox strung together three consecutive damaging blows off Brewers reliever Bryce Meccage. Dru Baker opened the damage with a double that shifted win probability by +16.8%, the single largest swing of the game. Drew Romo followed with a run-scoring single worth +12.3%, and Sam Antonacci added another single at +11.4%, collectively accounting for three of the four biggest batting plays of the night. That three-run sixth gave Chicago the separation it needed, and Baker finished as the game's top batter by WPA at +17.1% with a +0.9 RE24.
On the mound, the White Sox pitching staff was equally effective. Sean Burke led Chicago's pitchers with a +10.6% WPA contribution, followed closely by Tanner McDougal at +10.5%, despite surrendering a Josh Adamczewski double in the eighth that swung probability +9.9% toward Milwaukee. Tyler Gilbert added +7.2% WPA to close out the effort. Milwaukee finished with seven hits and an error, matching Chicago's own seven-hit, one-error line, but could not convert when it mattered, leaving the DiamondIQ model's estimate to reflect a result that was never truly in doubt after the sixth.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.