Boston completed a back-and-forth spring training contest at JetBlue Park on February 22, 2026, edging the Toronto Blue Jays 11-10 in a game that produced 25 combined hits and a wild late-inning swing. The DiamondIQ model opened with Boston holding a 54% home win probability, but the final figure settled at 100% as the Red Sox ultimately held on.
The sixth inning was the pivot point of the afternoon. Toronto built early momentum in the top of the first, when both clubs exchanged four runs apiece, but it was the sixth that reshuffled the game's trajectory dramatically. Josh Kasevich delivered the single highest-impact offensive play of the contest, connecting for a home run off Devin Sweet that added 22.8 percentage points of win probability for the Blue Jays. Eloy Jiménez followed with another home run off Sweet worth an additional 13.7 points, giving Toronto a three-run sixth that appeared threatening. Boston answered immediately in the bottom half against Devereaux Harrison, where Nate Eaton's double swung the pendulum back by 17.5 points and Max Ferguson's hit by pitch added another 14.5, capping a six-run inning that proved decisive. Toronto mounted a three-run ninth but came up short, and Sean Keys's strikeout to end a sequence registered as the game's most damaging single out, costing the Blue Jays 16.6 points of win probability.
By the WPA leaderboard, Eaton led all players at plus-24.9% with a RE24 of plus-2.5, while Kasevich finished at plus-21.7% despite pitching on the losing side, and Braiden Ward contributed plus-15.2% with a plus-1.8 RE24 in support of the Boston cause. On the mound, Lazaro Estrada led Red Sox pitchers at plus-10.9%, followed by Jay Allmer at plus-6.8% and Jovani Morán at plus-6.3%. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Boston's bullpen management as the critical factor, given how thoroughly the probability locked in once the Red Sox sixth-inning outburst absorbed Toronto's charge.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.