The Los Angeles Angels edged the Arizona Diamondbacks 10-9 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on February 22, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically through the middle and late innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54% pre-game win probability favoring Arizona, but the Angels gradually seized control before the Diamondbacks mounted a final push that fell just short.
The decisive stretch came in the sixth inning, where both teams combined for ten runs. Jorge Barrosa's home run off Chase Silseth represented the single biggest positive swing for Arizona in the frame, adding 30.7% to their win probability, and Alek Thomas added fuel with a double off Silseth worth 16.4%. The Angels, however, answered in the seventh when Niko Kavadas delivered a single off Roman Angelo that shifted win probability 22.0% in Los Angeles's favor, extending what became a critical cushion. A Gustavo Campero grounded-into-double-play in the same half-inning cost the Angels 17.4%, tightening matters before the bullpen steadied things. Kavadas finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 33.8% and a RE24 of plus 2.1.
In the bottom of the ninth, Arizona's Druw Jones grounded out against Houston Harding with the tying run on base, a play the model registered as a 31.6% swing in Los Angeles's favor that effectively ended the comeback attempt. On the pitching side, Dylan Phillips led all hurlers with a WPA of plus 14.6%, followed by Jared Southard at plus 13.3% and Alek Manoah at plus 12.1%, as the Angels' bullpen collectively protected the one-run margin through Arizona's final surge.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.