The New York Yankees routed the Detroit Tigers 20-3 on February 21, 2026, at George M. Steinbrenner Field in a game that was never particularly close. The DiamondIQ model entered with a 54 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent as New York's offense overwhelmed Detroit across nearly every frame, with the Yankees collecting 18 hits and the Tigers committing two errors to compound their difficulties.
The decisive swings came early and often. Aaron Judge supplied the two biggest plays of the game, connecting for a home run off Burch Smith in the bottom of the third that shifted win probability by 11.6 percent, then adding a second home run off Ricky Vanasco in the fourth worth another 6.2 percent swing, giving him a combined WPA of plus-17.0 on the day. Corey Julks countered briefly for Detroit with a home run off Carlos Lagrange in the top of the third that added 9.7 percent to the Tigers' win probability, but that momentum dissolved quickly. Spencer Jones had driven in a home run off Keider Montero in the second for a 7.0 percent swing, and Jasson Domínguez followed the Judge blast in the third with a double off Smith worth 5.6 percent, steadily burying any realistic chance of a Detroit rally. The eight-run eighth inning served as the final punctuation mark, though the game's outcome had been firmly in hand long before.
On the pitching side, Will Brian led New York's staff contributors with a WPA of plus-4.8, followed closely by David Bednar at plus-4.6 and Fernando Cruz at plus-1.4. At the plate, Judge finished as the clear standout at plus-17.0 WPA and plus-2.8 RE24, while Julks posted plus-9.0 WPA despite pitching for the losing side, and Ali Sánchez contributed plus-7.7 WPA and plus-0.5 RE24 for New York. The final line of 20 runs on 18 hits left little analytical ambiguity — the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected a complete and decisive Yankees performance.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.