The Colorado Rockies rolled to an 11-6 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks on February 21, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, erasing the DiamondIQ model's pre-game 54 percent home win probability for Arizona down to a final 0 percent. Colorado did the bulk of its damage early, plating five runs in the second inning and two more in the third to build a lead that Arizona never seriously threatened. The Rockies finished with 13 hits and allowed three errors to creep in, while Arizona managed just seven hits against a Colorado pitching staff that held firm through the middle innings.
The decisive stretch came in the top of the second, where Brenton Doyle's double off Zane Russell swung win probability 9.8 points in Colorado's favor, and a Charlie Condon strikeout on the Arizona side — drawn from Casey Anderson — added another 9.4 points to the Rockies' outlook. Arizona got a measure of life in the bottom half when Jordan Lawlar connected for a home run off Valente Bellozo worth 4.2 points of win probability, but Druw Jones's flyout in that same inning, also against Bellozo, was the single biggest probability swing of the game, costing Arizona 10.4 points at a moment when a hit could have reoriented the game entirely. Adael Amador's home run off Alfred Morillo in the top of the third added another 5.2 points for Colorado and effectively closed the door.
Doyle led all position players with a WPA of plus-12.7 and an RE24 of plus-3.6, while Condon contributed plus-11.9 WPA on the night. Amador added plus-6.3 WPA. On the mound, Valente Bellozo was the top pitcher by WPA at plus-10.4, a figure driven largely by the run-prevention value of the Jones flyout, with Tanner Gordon and Jaden Hill also posting positive contributions at plus-2.1 and plus-0.6 respectively. The DiamondIQ model favors the Rockies' offensive output in the second and third innings as the clear turning point of this lopsided spring result.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.