The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Cincinnati Reds 4-2 at Goodyear Ballpark on February 21, 2026, a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked steadily away from its 54% pre-game home win probability toward a final certainty of 100% in Cleveland's favor. The Reds struck first in the top of the third inning, when Will Benson connected on a home run off Colin Holderman that shifted win probability 18.9 points in Cincinnati's direction and gave the visitors a 2-0 lead. Cleveland answered methodically, chipping away with a run in the fourth and another in the sixth, the latter coming on a David Fry double off Julian Aguiar that represented a 16.8-point swing in the Guardians' favor and knotted the game heading into the late innings.
The seventh inning settled the outcome. After Cam Collier's strikeout against Cam Schuelke erased a potential Cincinnati threat and swung win probability 12.3 points toward Cleveland, the Guardians' offense took over in the bottom half against Hagen Danner. Carter Kieboom delivered a double worth 19.3 win-probability points, the single largest swing of the game, and Alex Mooney followed with a triple that added another 13.7 points, providing the decisive two-run cushion that Cleveland would not relinquish.
Among the top performers, Will Benson led all batters with a WPA of plus-16.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.3, though his early contribution was ultimately insufficient. Alex Mooney finished at plus-15.5 WPA and David Fry at plus-12.2 WPA to pace the Cleveland offense. On the mound, Cam Schuelke led all pitchers with a plus-12.3 WPA mark, followed by Doug Nikhazy at plus-9.7 and Jack Jasiak at plus-8.1, as Cleveland's pitching staff held Cincinnati to just four hits and no errors over nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.