The Toronto Blue Jays shut out the Philadelphia Phillies 3-0 on February 21, 2026, at TD Ballpark, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Toronto's win probability climbing from 54% before the first pitch to a decisive 100% by game's end. Philadelphia managed just four hits and was held scoreless across nine innings, committing one error to match Toronto's one miscue on the night.
The game's decisive sequence came across the fifth and sixth innings, driven by a pair of home runs that swung the contest firmly in Toronto's favor. In the bottom of the fifth, Daulton Varsho connected for a solo home run off Seth Johnson, a swing worth a 12.4% shift in Toronto's win probability. That momentum carried into the sixth, where Sean Keys added another solo shot off Nolan Hoffman, producing the single largest win-probability swing of the evening at 15.9%. A Nathan Lukes groundout into a double play in the fifth had briefly cost Toronto 7.2% in win probability, but the Blue Jays answered emphatically on both sides of that sequence. Philadelphia's most notable threat came in the top of the eighth, when Paul McIntosh laced a double off Gage Stanifer worth 6.6% in win probability, though Felix Reyes followed with a groundout that erased 5.1% of that gain and effectively ended the rally.
On the mound, CJ Van Eyk led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 13.6%, followed by Adam Macko at plus 11.0% and Bryse Wilson at plus 6.7%, as the three combined to hold Philadelphia's offense in check throughout. Offensively, Keys and Varsho headlined Toronto's effort, each finishing with a WPA above 14% and an RE24 of plus 1.3, while McIntosh's double represented the lone bright spot in an otherwise quiet night for the Phillies.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.