The San Diego Padres handed the Kansas City Royals a 10-3 defeat at Surprise Stadium on February 21, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifting from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to zero by the final out. San Diego's offense generated 18 hits and committed no errors, while Kansas City was held to 7 hits and hurt itself with 2 errors. The scoring was largely back-loaded, with the Padres doing most of their damage in the fifth, eighth, and a decisive four-run ninth inning.
The game's turning point came in the fifth inning, when Freddy Fermin's double off Ben Kudrna added 13.3 percent to San Diego's win probability, beginning a sequence that would unravel Kansas City's early control of the contest. Kansas City answered in the bottom half, where Dairon Blanco's double off Miguel Mendez shifted the Royals' outlook by 12.7 percent, and a Kameron Misner walk off Alek Jacob added another 12.0 percent, briefly keeping the home side in contention. However, Nick Solak's home run off Jonathan Heasley in the top of the eighth, the single biggest swing of the game at plus 14.9 percent, effectively closed the door, followed by a four-run ninth that made the final margin emphatic.
Jose F Miranda was the standout performer by DiamondIQ's numbers, finishing with a plus 26.9 percent WPA and a plus 4.1 RE24, the highest marks of any position player on either side. His fifth-inning single off Kudrna alone added 11.7 percent to San Diego's probability. Blanco and Solak each contributed plus 1.4 RE24, while Bradgley Rodriguez led the San Diego pitching staff at plus 9.7 percent WPA, followed by Mason Black at plus 8.0 percent and Matt Waldron at plus 6.7 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.