The Miami Marlins edged the New York Mets 2-1 at Clover Park on February 21, 2026, in a tightly contested game that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability begin at 54 percent before falling to zero by the final out. Miami scored in the fourth and sixth innings on just two hits, while New York managed to push across its lone run in the bottom of the eighth, keeping the game within reach before ultimately falling short.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, where Nigel Belgrave's work on the mound defined the contest in both directions. Wyatt Young drew a walk that shifted win probability by plus 12.1 percent in New York's favor, briefly tightening the game, but Eli Serrano III's strikeout against Belgrave swung momentum back toward Miami by 22.1 percent, the single largest win-probability swing of the night. That play effectively neutralized the Mets' threat and proved to be the decisive moment. In the ninth, Stephen Jones closed it out despite a Kevin Parada strikeout that registered a plus 16.3 percent swing and a Kevin Villavicencio single that added another plus 12.3 percent, as Jose Ramos's strikeout to end the game erased the remaining New York hope at minus 11.9 percent.
Among the top individual performers, Kevin Parada led Mets batters with a plus 12.2 percent WPA, while Connor Norby contributed plus 11.1 percent and Wyatt Young added plus 9.8 percent despite the team coming up short. On the pitching side, Josh Ekness led Marlins relievers at plus 8.8 percent WPA, followed by Jack Ralston at plus 7.5 percent and Zach Brzykcy at plus 6.8 percent, a collective effort that held New York to a single run and secured the narrow road victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.