The San Francisco Giants handed the Seattle Mariners a 10-5 defeat at Peoria Stadium on February 21, 2026, erasing a five-run first-inning deficit to pull away convincingly. Seattle jumped out with five runs in the opening frame, giving the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win a reasonable foundation at 54% entering the game. But San Francisco answered with four runs in the second and steadily chipped away at Seattle's advantage, with the decisive blow coming in a four-run eighth inning that put the game out of reach. The Giants finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, while Seattle managed nine hits but could not maintain its early edge.
The two most consequential offensive sequences belonged to the eighth and seventh innings. Nate Furman's double off Guillo Zuñiga in the top of the eighth carried the largest single-play win-probability swing of the game at plus 14.7 percent, and Buddy Kennedy followed with a triple off the same pitcher worth plus 12.9 percent, together cementing the four-run frame that closed the door. An inning earlier, Jake Holton's single off Casey Lawrence added plus 14.0 percent to San Francisco's win probability and helped push the Giants ahead for good. On the Seattle side, Jerar Encarnacion's fielder's choice out in the fifth cost the Mariners minus 10.3 percent, and Jared Sundstrom's groundout in the seventh subtracted another 8.7 percent from their chances.
By final WPA, Jake Holton led all batters at plus 16.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Buddy Kennedy contributed plus 12.9 percent and Heliot Ramos added plus 12.6 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.1. On the mound, Stefan Raeth was the pitching standout with plus 16.6 percent WPA, followed by Juan Sanchez at plus 9.7 percent and Caleb Kilian at plus 7.1 percent. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for Seattle, reflecting how completely San Francisco had taken control by the final out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.