The Chicago White Sox handed the Chicago Cubs an 8-1 defeat at Sloan Park on February 20, 2026, a game that was effectively decided in the early innings as the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs win, which opened at 54 percent, fell all the way to zero by the final out. Chicago's South Siders scored in each of the first two innings and added two more in the fourth, building a lead the Cubs never threatened. The White Sox finished with 12 hits against a Cubs staff that could not contain the damage, while CWS pitching limited Chicago to just seven hits and one run across nine innings.
The decisive stretch came in the top of the second, where Sam Antonacci's home run off Jameson Taillon shifted win probability by 7.7 percent in the White Sox's favor, and Kyle Teel added a strikeout sequence that registered a 6.3 percent swing as the Cubs' own at-bats went cold in the bottom half. Jonathon Long's groundout off Riley Gowens in the bottom of the second was the single biggest probability swing of the game at 12.4 percent, extinguishing a potential Cubs rally and cementing CWS control. Munetaka Murakami then put the game further out of reach with a double off Porter Hodge in the fourth, a hit worth 8.4 percent in win probability added.
On the individual leaderboard, Murakami led all batters with a 12.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Teel contributed 8.0 percent WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus-0.2. On the mound, Riley Gowens led all pitchers with a 12.4 percent WPA, supported by Tyler Schweitzer at 5.8 percent and Tyson Miller at 4.9 percent, a pitching performance that kept the Cubs' lineup from generating any sustained pressure throughout the afternoon.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.