Arizona picked up a 3-2 road win over Colorado on February 20 at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, overcoming a two-run deficit with a decisive eighth-inning rally before holding on in the ninth. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Colorado carrying a 54 percent win probability at home, but that edge evaporated as the game progressed and closed at zero percent for the Rockies.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the eighth against Patrick Weigel. Matt O'Neill delivered a double that swung Arizona's win probability by plus 22.3 percent, and Jacob Amaya followed with a single adding another plus 15.9 percent, erasing what had been a 2-1 Colorado advantage built on Cole Carrigg's fourth-inning triple off Isaiah Campbell, which had shifted the Rockies' outlook by plus 17.2 percent. Arizona finished with eight hits and committed no errors while Colorado managed just three hits and was hurt by two errors.
The ninth inning provided the game's single largest probability swing, though it came off an out rather than a hit. Vimael Machin's flyout off Jose Cabrera in the bottom of the ninth added plus 27.0 percent to Arizona's win probability, capping a sequence that saw Chad Stevens's forceout earlier in the inning swing minus 22.1 percent against Colorado and ultimately seal the outcome. Machin led all position players at plus 25.7 percent WPA on the night, with O'Neill at plus 22.3 percent and Carrigg at plus 16.8 percent. On the pitching side, Sean Sullivan led Arizona's staff at plus 8.5 percent WPA, followed by Andrew Hoffmann at plus 7.4 percent and Luis Peralta at plus 7.3 percent.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.