Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers handed the Chicago White Sox a 13-4 defeat at Guaranteed Rate Field on August 24, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate made look nearly inevitable by game's end — Chicago's pre-game win probability stood at 27% and fell to 0% by the final out. Detroit built its advantage steadily across the early innings, plating a run in the first before the game's defining stretch arrived in the third and fourth innings, when the Tigers seized control with a four-run third and another four-run fourth. A nine-run final frame closed out any remaining doubt.

The third inning was the game's fulcrum, generating the largest individual win-probability swings in both directions. Matt Vierling's home run off Ky Bush added 9.8 percentage points of win probability for Detroit, and Riley Greene's double off Bush contributed another 7.6 points in the same frame. Chicago responded temporarily, with Luis Robert Jr.'s single off Tarik Skubal adding 13.9 points for the White Sox and Andrew Vaughn's single contributing another 9.6 points, but those moments proved insufficient to alter the game's trajectory. Jake Rogers extended Detroit's advantage with a single off Touki Toussaint in the fourth, a play worth 8.0 points of win probability.

When accounting for cumulative win-probability impact across the full game, Jake Rogers led all batters at plus-14.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Vierling finished at plus-13.5 with a RE24 of plus-2.2. Vaughn was the top White Sox contributor at plus-12.6, though his team's pitching staff absorbed a 14-hit Detroit attack without committing an error. On the mound, Gus Varland led Detroit's relievers by WPA at plus-0.9, followed closely by Joey Wentz at plus-0.8.