Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 1 |
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handed the Pittsburgh Pirates a lopsided 10-2 defeat at PNC Park on August 24, 2024, scoring in bunches across the first, fourth, and sixth innings to turn what the DiamondIQ model opened as a 53 percent home win probability into a complete Pittsburgh collapse. The Reds put up four runs in the first inning and four more in the fourth, effectively making the outcome academic before the game reached its midpoint. Cincinnati finished with 12 hits against only three for Pittsburgh, and Pirates errors contributed to a rough afternoon for the home side.
The game's decisive swings came early and were defined largely by the pitching matchup. Julian Aguiar, working for Cincinnati, generated the single biggest probability shift of the afternoon when Oneil Cruz grounded into a double play in the bottom of the first, a play worth a 10.2 percent swing in win probability against Pittsburgh's chances. The Pirates briefly answered in the second when Rowdy Tellez hit a home run off Aguiar, a swing worth plus 9.9 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, but that rally proved brief and isolated. On the Cincinnati side, Jake Woodford struggled to limit damage, with Elly De La Cruz delivering a key single in the fourth worth 8.3 percent in win probability added and Jonathan India and Dominic Smith both contributing significant swings through their own plate appearances off Woodford earlier in the game.
Among the individual performers, Aguiar led all pitchers with a plus-16.3 percent win probability contribution, anchoring a Reds staff that held Pittsburgh to three hits on the night. Offensively, Dominic Smith paced Cincinnati batters with a plus-13.3 percent WPA, followed by Jonathan India at plus-9.7 percent and Tellez at plus-8.6 percent despite his home run coming in a losing effort for Pittsburgh. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Pittsburgh's win probability finished at zero percent, a reflection of how thoroughly Cincinnati controlled the contest from the opening frame.