San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Seattle Mariners walked off the San Francisco Giants 6-5 in ten innings on August 23, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, completing a late comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected with its final win probability reaching 100% for the home side after opening the game at 54%.
The decisive sequence unfolded in the bottom of the eighth, where Seattle erased what had been a 5-1 Giants lead with a four-run rally against reliever Tyler Rogers. Josh Rojas started the damage with a single that added 19.7% to Seattle's win probability, followed almost immediately by a Luke Raley single worth another 19.2%. Leo Rivas also singled in the inning, contributing an additional 15.9% swing, as the Mariners tied the game and set the stage for extras. San Francisco had built that advantage largely through Michael Conforto's fourth-inning home run off Luis Castillo, a swing worth 17.7% in win probability that represented the Giants' most impactful offensive moment of the night.
With the game knotted in the tenth, Leo Rivas delivered the walkoff on a single off Erik Miller, a hit that produced the largest single win-probability swing of the game at plus 41.4%. Rivas finished as the top performer by WPA at plus 55.0% with a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Raley posted a plus 35.9% WPA and led all batters with a RE24 of plus 2.4. On the mound, Hayden Birdsong led San Francisco's pitching staff with a plus 23.0% WPA, though ultimately the Giants' bullpen could not hold the lead. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Mariners' three-batter run through the eighth inning as the turning point that reshaped the game's probability landscape beyond recovery for San Francisco.