MLB Recap · August 23, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

AZ12
Final
BOS2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ20000340312160
BOS100001000261

The Story

The Arizona Diamondbacks routed the Boston Red Sox 12-2 at Fenway Park on August 23, 2024, in a game that was competitive early but turned decisively in Arizona's favor across the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with an even 50 percent home win probability for Boston but closed at zero percent, reflecting how thoroughly the Diamondbacks dismantled the Red Sox pitching staff. Arizona struck first with two runs in the opening inning against Boston's one, then added three more in the sixth, four in the seventh, and three in the ninth to pull away comfortably, finishing with 16 hits and no errors against Boston's six hits and one error.

The pivotal sequence came in the sixth inning against Brayan Bello, where a Luis Guillorme double shifted Arizona's win probability by plus 11.4 percent, the single largest swing of the game. Eugenio Suarez followed with a single that added another 7.9 percent to Arizona's advantage off Bello, compounding the damage in that frame. Suarez continued his dominant afternoon in the seventh when he connected on a home run off Josh Winckowski, a swing worth an additional 7.2 percent in win probability. Boston's Rob Refsnyder provided the lone moment of resistance, a sixth-inning home run off Ryne Nelson that registered plus 6.5 percent from the Red Sox perspective, though his third-inning strikeout against Nelson had cost Boston 8.6 percent earlier in the contest.

Suarez finished as the game's standout performer by a wide margin, accumulating plus 16.9 percent in total WPA and plus 3.6 RE24 across his contributions. Guillorme added plus 11.6 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, while Lourdes Gurriel Jr. contributed plus 4.3 percent WPA to the Arizona cause. On the mound, Ryne Nelson was the story, posting plus 24.1 percent WPA in a thoroughly dominant outing that kept Boston's offense in check and gave the Diamondbacks the foundation to build their ten-run margin of victory. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Nelson's performance as the structural backbone of this lopsided result.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalBOS win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 49.7% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Luis Guillorme Double
Top 6th · off Brayan Bello
+11.4%
Rob Refsnyder Strikeout
Bot 3rd · off Ryne Nelson
-8.6%
Eugenio Suárez Single
Top 6th · off Brayan Bello
+7.9%
Eugenio Suárez Home Run
Top 7th · off Josh Winckowski
+7.2%
Rob Refsnyder Home Run
Bot 6th · off Ryne Nelson
+6.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Eugenio Suárez+16.9%+3.6 RE24
Luis Guillorme+11.6%+1.6 RE24
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.+4.3%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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