Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Pittsburgh Pirates handled the Cincinnati Reds 7-0 at PNC Park on August 22, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 53 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent after a decisive fifth-inning eruption that effectively ended the contest before the Pirates had recorded the final out.
The game turned entirely on a six-run fifth inning that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate dramatically in Pittsburgh's favor. Bryan De La Cruz delivered the pivotal blow of the frame, a double off Jakob Junis that added 15.6 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability. The inning continued after the pitching change, with Joey Bart getting hit by a pitch off Nick Lodolo for an 11.0 percent swing and Bryan Reynolds following with a single off Lodolo that added another 10.1 percent. On the other side of the ledger, Santiago Espinal grounded into a double play against Paul Skenes in the top of the fifth, a sequence that cost Cincinnati 9.5 percent in win probability and snuffed out what had been Cincinnati's best opportunity to get on the board.
Paul Skenes was the dominant individual performer of the night, finishing with a WPA of plus 21.8 percent to lead all players regardless of side. His command kept Cincinnati off the board through the early innings and neutralized any hope of a Reds comeback once Pittsburgh pulled ahead. De La Cruz led Pittsburgh's offense with a plus 16.6 percent WPA and 2.5 RE24, while Joey Bart and Bryan Reynolds contributed plus 8.3 and plus 7.1 percent WPA respectively, cementing a shutout that was never seriously in doubt after the fifth.