MLB Recap · August 22, 2024

Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

CIN0
Final
PIT7

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
CIN000000000050
PIT00006100-770

The Story

The Pittsburgh Pirates handled the Cincinnati Reds 7-0 at PNC Park on August 22, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 53 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent after a decisive fifth-inning eruption that effectively ended the contest before the Pirates had recorded the final out.

The game turned entirely on a six-run fifth inning that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate dramatically in Pittsburgh's favor. Bryan De La Cruz delivered the pivotal blow of the frame, a double off Jakob Junis that added 15.6 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability. The inning continued after the pitching change, with Joey Bart getting hit by a pitch off Nick Lodolo for an 11.0 percent swing and Bryan Reynolds following with a single off Lodolo that added another 10.1 percent. On the other side of the ledger, Santiago Espinal grounded into a double play against Paul Skenes in the top of the fifth, a sequence that cost Cincinnati 9.5 percent in win probability and snuffed out what had been Cincinnati's best opportunity to get on the board.

Paul Skenes was the dominant individual performer of the night, finishing with a WPA of plus 21.8 percent to lead all players regardless of side. His command kept Cincinnati off the board through the early innings and neutralized any hope of a Reds comeback once Pittsburgh pulled ahead. De La Cruz led Pittsburgh's offense with a plus 16.6 percent WPA and 2.5 RE24, while Joey Bart and Bryan Reynolds contributed plus 8.3 and plus 7.1 percent WPA respectively, cementing a shutout that was never seriously in doubt after the fifth.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025CIN bats firstFinalPIT win %CIN win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 52.8% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bryan De La Cruz Double
Bot 5th · off Jakob Junis
+15.6%
Joey Bart Hit By Pitch
Bot 5th · off Nick Lodolo
+11.0%
Bryan Reynolds Single
Bot 5th · off Nick Lodolo
+10.1%
Santiago Espinal Grounded Into DP
Top 5th · off Paul Skenes
-9.5%
Amed Rosario Single
Top 5th · off Paul Skenes
+4.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Bryan De La Cruz+16.6%+2.5 RE24
Joey Bart+8.3%+0.6 RE24
Bryan Reynolds+7.1%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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