Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals shut out the Milwaukee Brewers 3-0 on August 22, 2024, at Busch Stadium, with all three runs coming in a decisive seventh inning that turned a scoreless tie into a Cardinal victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 46 percent in favor of St. Louis and closed at 100 percent by game's end, reflecting just how thoroughly the seventh-inning burst settled the contest.

The critical sequence in the bottom of the seventh began when Willson Contreras drew a walk off Nick Mears, a play that shifted win probability by plus 12.1 percent and cracked open the frame. Alec Burleson followed with a single off Mears worth another plus 9.1 percent, and Nolan Arenado added a single off Bryse Wilson that contributed plus 7.5 percent, the Cardinals methodically constructing the margin that would hold. Prior to that burst, Milwaukee's best opportunity came in the third, where Brendan Donovan's flyout off Freddy Peralta was the game's single most damaging negative swing at minus 7.8 percent, and a Contreras groundout in the fifth cost the Cardinals another minus 5.6 percent, though those setbacks proved temporary.

On the mound, Miles Mikolas was the game's dominant force, accumulating plus 31.3 percent in win probability added to lead all pitchers. Freddy Peralta matched him in impact from the Milwaukee side at plus 20.0 percent, keeping the Cardinals off the board through six innings before the bullpen faltered, while Andrew Kittredge contributed plus 8.3 percent in relief. At the plate, Burleson led Cardinal hitters with plus 12.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0, Victor Scott II added plus 11.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 0.8, and Contreras rounded out the top performers at plus 8.9 percent despite the earlier costly groundout.