Detroit Tigers at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the Detroit Tigers 3-1 at Wrigley Field on August 20, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 55% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by game's end. Detroit managed nine hits but could not convert them into runs with any consistency, while Chicago made the most of five hits by concentrating its damage in the fifth and sixth innings.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the fifth when Cody Bellinger doubled off Bryan Sammons, a swing that shifted win probability by 22.8 percentage points and represented the single largest play of the game. Detroit had actually threatened first, as Dillon Dingler's triple off Javier Assad in the top of the fifth produced the Tigers' lone run and moved the needle 9.7 points in Detroit's favor, but Chicago answered immediately and then added to its lead in the sixth on a Dansby Swanson home run off Sammons worth another 12.8 percentage points. Detroit mounted a late push in the ninth — Spencer Torkelson doubled off Porter Hodge for an 8.9-point swing — but Jace Jung's subsequent strikeout erased 7.0 points of probability and effectively closed the door.
Bellinger finished as the top offensive performer by WPA at plus-17.8 with a RE24 of plus-1.2, while Torkelson's late effort still left him second overall at plus-14.8 and a RE24 of plus-1.3. Swanson added plus-13.2 WPA on the strength of his home run. On the mound, Javier Assad led all pitchers at plus-14.2 WPA, supported by Tyson Miller at plus-10.6 and Drew Smyly at plus-8.1, a collective effort that kept Detroit's nine-hit output from doing any further damage.