Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers held on to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals 3-2 at Busch Stadium on August 20, 2024, in a game that turned on a dramatic ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 44 percent pre-game win probability for St. Louis, reflecting a genuine home-field edge, but that number fell to zero by the final out. Milwaukee scored in the second, fifth, and eighth innings, while St. Louis mustered two runs in the bottom of the eighth before Devin Williams slammed the door in the ninth.
The Cardinals' most significant swing came in the eighth, when Matt Carpenter connected on a home run off Nick Mears that shifted win probability by plus 23.9 percent, cutting the deficit and making it a one-run game. That momentum carried into the ninth, where Nolan Arenado delivered the single most impactful at-bat of the night, lacing a double off Williams that moved the Cardinals' win probability by plus 31.1 percent. Yet the rally stalled when Paul Goldschmidt struck out looking, a swing in the opposite direction worth minus 27.3 percent, and Nolan Gorman's strikeout to end the game added a final plus 11.0 percent shift in Milwaukee's favor.
On the pitching side, Frankie Montas was the game's most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing plus 39.2 percent win probability to Milwaukee's cause, with Jared Koenig adding plus 16.5 percent largely by retiring Tommy Pham in a pivotal spot — a strikeout that swung win probability by minus 16.5 percent against St. Louis. For the Cardinals, Arenado finished as the top batter at plus 25.0 percent WPA, though his effort ultimately went unrewarded, while William Contreras led Milwaukee's offensive contributors at plus 14.9 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24.