Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds handed the Toronto Blue Jays a 6-3 defeat at Rogers Centre on August 19, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 52 percent pre-game home win probability for Toronto and running that figure all the way to zero by the final out. The Reds struck first in the third inning and added another run in the fourth, but the game turned decisively in the top of the sixth, when Cincinnati sent four runs across the plate against reliever Ryan Burr to pull away for good.

That sixth inning was the heart of the contest. Spencer Steer opened the damage with a double off Burr that shifted win probability by plus-15.9 percent in Cincinnati's favor, the single largest swing of the game. Jake Fraley followed with another double worth plus-7.3 percent, and Ty France capped the sequence with a double of his own that added another plus-14.5 percent. Before the sixth, TJ Friedl had already set the tone with a solo home run off Kevin Gausman in the fourth inning, a plus-11.3 percent swing that gave the Reds a two-run cushion. Toronto's best moment came in the bottom of the third, when Daulton Varsho singled off Julian Aguiar for a plus-8.8 percent boost, briefly tightening the game.

By the numbers, Steer finished as the game's most impactful offensive contributor with a cumulative WPA of plus-14.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.2, while Friedl posted plus-14.0 percent WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 to rank second. France added plus-10.0 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24. Out of the Cincinnati bullpen, Tony Santillan led the pitching staff with plus-5.8 percent WPA, followed by Buck Farmer at plus-4.8 percent and Sam Moll at plus-3.3 percent, as the Reds held a one-error Toronto lineup to six hits and closed out the road win cleanly.