MLB Recap · August 19, 2024

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

SEA0
Final
LAD3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA000000000020
LAD00000030-341

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers shut out the Seattle Mariners 3-0 on August 19, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, with all three runs arriving in a decisive seventh inning that transformed a scoreless pitchers' duel into a comfortable Dodgers victory. The DiamondIQ model entered the game assigning Los Angeles a 62% win probability, and that figure climbed to 100% by the final out.

The game turned entirely on a two-at-bat sequence in the bottom of the seventh. Max Muncy delivered a home run off Yimi García that swung win probability 18.9 points in the Dodgers' favor, and Gavin Lux followed with another home run, this one off Bryan Woo, adding another 17.1 points. Those two swings accounted for nearly the entire late-game probability shift. Seattle had its own fleeting moment of potential in the seventh when Julio Rodríguez reached on a fielding error charged to Gavin Stone, a play worth plus 5.7% in win probability for the Mariners, but Jorge Polanco immediately grounded into a double play that erased the threat and cost Seattle 12.2 points of win probability. An earlier double play by Josh Rojas in the fifth had similarly extinguished a Seattle rally, costing the Mariners 6.7 points.

Gavin Stone was the game's dominant individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a WPA of plus 31.7%, absorbing the Rodríguez error without surrendering a run and repeatedly suppressing Seattle's limited offense across his outing. Bryan Woo posted a WPA of plus 19.0% in a strong effort before surrendering the Lux home run late. Muncy and Lux led all batters with WPA figures of plus 13.3% and plus 13.2% respectively, each also contributing 0.9 or better in RE24. Seattle finished with just two hits on the evening.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalLAD win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 61.8% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Max Muncy Home Run
Bot 7th · off Yimi García
+18.9%
Gavin Lux Home Run
Bot 7th · off Bryan Woo
+17.1%
Jorge Polanco Grounded Into DP
Top 7th · off Gavin Stone
-12.2%
Josh Rojas Double Play
Top 5th · off Gavin Stone
-6.7%
Julio Rodríguez Field Error
Top 7th · off Gavin Stone
+5.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Max Muncy+13.3%+1.0 RE24
Gavin Lux+13.2%+0.9 RE24
Julio Rodríguez+9.0%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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