Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the Miami Marlins a 9-6 defeat at loanDepot park on August 19, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model saw coming from early on. Miami entered with a 35 percent pre-game win probability that evaporated to zero by the final out. The game's decisive moment arrived in the top of the third inning, when Adrian Del Castillo connected on a home run off Adam Oller that swung win probability 31.3 points in Arizona's favor, effectively seizing control of the contest before Miami had established any real foothold. The Diamondbacks continued to add in the seventh and eighth innings, tacking on two runs in each frame to push the margin beyond reach.

The sixth inning represented Miami's best and ultimately failed attempt at a rally. Kyle Stowers singled off Brandon Pfaadt to shift win probability 14.2 points toward the Marlins, and Nick Fortes had already contributed a home run off Pfaadt in the third to keep Miami within range. But Fortes grounded into a double play against Kevin Ginkel later in the sixth, a sequence that swung probability 14.8 points back toward Arizona and effectively ended the competitive portion of the evening. Ginkel finished as the top pitcher by WPA at plus 21.2 percent, his work in that inning proving to be the critical bridge moment.

Del Castillo was the clear standout performer, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 43.4 percent and an RE24 of plus 4.1, his home run and a subsequent single in the seventh off Kent Emanuel accounting for swing values of plus 31.3 and plus 13.1 points respectively. Stowers ended as Miami's top contributor at plus 23.7 percent WPA and plus 2.0 RE24, though his efforts were undermined by the team's inability to capitalize in key moments. Derek Hill added plus 11.8 percent WPA for Arizona, rounding out a balanced offensive effort that more than compensated for a Miami lineup that totaled 12 hits without finding the clutch production necessary to overcome the early deficit.