Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Washington Nationals overcame a pre-game disadvantage and a late Philadelphia charge to defeat the Phillies 6-4 at Citizens Bank Park on August 18, 2024. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Philadelphia holding a 67% chance of winning at home, but the Nationals methodically dismantled that edge and closed the door entirely, leaving the model at 0% for the home side by game's end. Washington collected 11 hits without committing an error, while Philadelphia's lone miscue contributed to a night that unraveled in the later innings for the home club.
The decisive sequence began in the top of the fourth, when Keibert Ruiz connected on a home run off Taijuan Walker, a swing that shifted win probability 17.3 points in Washington's favor and stood as the single most impactful offensive moment of the game. Philadelphia answered in the bottom of the sixth with back-to-back home runs off Jake Irvin — Brandon Marsh at plus 15.3 points and Bryson Stott at plus 13.7 points — pulling the Phillies back into contention momentarily. Washington responded with a run in the eighth and added another in the ninth, and when Kyle Finnegan induced a game-ending double play off Cal Stevenson's bat in the bottom of the ninth, a swing of minus 14.9 points sealed the outcome, followed immediately by Garrett Stubbs grounding out for a plus 14.4-point contribution to the Nationals' final margin.
On the individual ledger, Ruiz led all position players with a WPA of plus 13.3 and an RE24 of plus 0.7, while Stubbs contributed plus 12.6 WPA despite a neutral run-expectancy figure, reflecting his clutch late-game appearances against Finnegan. Alex Call added plus 8.5 WPA with a plus 0.7 RE24. The pitching story belonged to Jacob Barnes, whose relief work generated a model-leading plus 27.3 WPA, the dominant performance of the night on either side. José Alvarado contributed plus 8.3 WPA for Philadelphia in a losing effort, and José A. Ferrer chipped in plus 4.3 WPA for Washington in support of the eventual victory.