MLB Recap · August 17, 2024

Kansas City Royals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

KC13
Final
CIN1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
KC12721000013150
CIN000000100173

The Story

The Kansas City Royals routed the Cincinnati Reds 13-1 at Great American Ball Park on August 17, 2024, a result that pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cincinnati win from 47% before first pitch all the way to 0% by the final out. Kansas City scored in each of the first five innings, with a seven-run third inning serving as the decisive blow that rendered the outcome a foregone conclusion well before the middle frames.

The game's most consequential individual contributions came in the first two innings, when Dairon Blanco turned the contest decisively in Kansas City's favor. His home run off Nick Lodolo in the second inning shifted win probability by plus-8.2 percentage points, and he followed with another home run in the third inning, this one off Buck Farmer, adding another plus-5.9 points. Blanco finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating plus-14.1% in WPA and a RE24 of plus-5.2. A Jeimer Candelario flyout off Michael Wacha in the bottom of the second represented Cincinnati's best opportunity to slow the momentum, carrying a minus-7.2% swing, but the Reds could not capitalize on runners in scoring position throughout the evening. Hunter Renfroe also contributed meaningfully, posting plus-5.3% WPA, highlighted by a third-inning walk off Lodolo worth plus-4.8 points in a rally that had already grown unmanageable for the home side.

On the mound, Michael Wacha was the central figure for Kansas City, finishing with plus-13.0% WPA to lead all pitchers. Cincinnati committed three errors across the game, compounding the damage from a Royals lineup that collected 15 hits. The model leans toward describing this as a comprehensive performance in which Kansas City's offense and starting pitching combined to eliminate any realistic path to a Reds comeback after the third inning concluded.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025KC bats firstFinalCIN win %KC win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 47.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Dairon Blanco Home Run
Top 2nd · off Nick Lodolo
+8.2%
Bot 2nd · off Michael Wacha
-7.2%
Dairon Blanco Home Run
Top 3rd · off Buck Farmer
+5.9%
Top 3rd · off Nick Lodolo
+4.8%
Bobby Witt Jr. Flyout
Top 2nd · off Nick Lodolo
+4.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Dairon Blanco+14.1%+5.2 RE24
Freddy Fermin+7.1%+2.5 RE24
Hunter Renfroe+5.3%+1.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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