Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates handed the Seattle Mariners a 7-2 defeat at PNC Park on August 17, 2024, pulling away from a game that opened as nearly a coin flip. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Pittsburgh entering with a 51 percent home win probability, but that figure climbed steadily and closed at 100 percent by the final out. Pittsburgh scored in five of nine innings, while Seattle's offense never managed to string together enough against a Pirates pitching staff that held firm when it mattered most.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the fourth when Rowdy Tellez connected on a home run off Luis Castillo, a swing that shifted win probability by 17.6 percent and represented the single largest play of the game. Seattle briefly pushed back in the top of the fifth when Jorge Polanco laced a double off Bailey Falter to close the gap incrementally, a play worth 12.0 percent in win probability from the Mariners' perspective, but Pittsburgh responded by continuing to build on Castillo. In the bottom of the sixth, Bryan De La Cruz singled and Joey Bart followed with a double, both coming off Castillo, adding 7.7 and 6.4 percent respectively. Jared Triolo then put the game out of reach with a home run off JT Chargois in the seventh, worth 8.2 percent.

Among the standout individual performances, Tellez led all batters with a WPA of plus-17.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, his home run proving to be the true hinge moment. De La Cruz and Polanco each posted a WPA of plus-9.2 with an RE24 of plus-0.7, representing the key contributors on their respective sides. On the mound, Bailey Falter led Pittsburgh's staff with a WPA of plus-11.7, followed by David Bednar at plus-7.9 and Dennis Santana at plus-7.3, a collective effort that kept Seattle's eight hits largely inconsequential across the final innings.