Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago White Sox pulled off a 5-4 upset at Minute Maid Park on August 16, 2024, handing the Houston Astros a loss the DiamondIQ model had estimated at just a 19 percent probability before first pitch. Chicago built its lead gradually, scoring in the second, third, fifth, and eighth innings while holding Houston at bay until a two-run Astros sixth threatened to swing the game. The White Sox finished with 11 hits and committed no errors, executing cleanly enough to overcome what had been an 81 percent pre-game home win probability for Houston.
The decisive swings belonged to Luis Robert Jr., whose two-hit performance drove the DiamondIQ model's biggest positive contributions from a position player. His third-inning home run off Spencer Arrighetti shifted win probability 14.9 percent in Chicago's favor, and his eighth-inning single off Kaleb Ort added another 13.3 percent at a moment when the game remained in doubt. Robert finished with a cumulative WPA of plus-35.6 and an RE24 of plus-3.0, making him the clear engine of the offensive effort. Jake Meyers provided the most damaging individual swing for Houston, turning in a two-run home run off Touki Toussaint in the sixth that produced a 22.1 percent probability gain and kept the Astros within a run.
On the pitching side, Garrett Crochet led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-24.9, anchoring a staff that received additional contributions from Justin Anderson at plus-19.1 and Matt Foster at plus-13.3. The game's single largest win-probability event came in the bottom of the ninth, when Chad Kuhl struck out Jose Altuve to end the contest, a moment the DiamondIQ model valued at plus-31.6 percent for Chicago. Altuve's WPA of plus-22.3 reflected how dangerous his plate appearances had been throughout the night, yet the final out sealed a result that left Houston's in-game win probability at zero.