Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Seattle Mariners 5-3 at PNC Park on August 16, 2024, in a game that began as a stalemate before Pittsburgh pulled away through a pair of decisive scoring bursts. The DiamondIQ model opened with a perfectly even 50-50 home win probability and closed at 100 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, reflecting how thoroughly the Pirates controlled the final innings. Seattle committed three errors on the night against a Pittsburgh club that played clean defense, finishing without a miscue across eight innings of scoring activity.

The pivotal swings came in the middle and late innings, with the biggest single play belonging to Oneil Cruz, whose seventh-inning double off Austin Voth shifted win probability by plus-20.0 percent and capped a two-run frame that effectively sealed the outcome. Pittsburgh had already taken a lead in the fifth when Yasmani Grandal connected for a home run off Logan Gilbert, a plus-13.4 percent swing that moved the Pirates in front. Seattle's best moment came in the fourth inning, when Luke Raley launched a home run off Paul Skenes for a plus-17.5 percent swing, briefly giving the Mariners life. Those hopes were dulled considerably in the sixth, when Dominic Canzone grounded into a double play off Skenes, a minus-16.2 percent turn that surrendered the momentum Seattle had been building, and Cal Raleigh's eighth-inning double play off Aroldis Chapman removed any final threat at minus-8.9 percent.

Raley finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-25.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.0, though his contributions were ultimately insufficient given Seattle's three errors. Cruz led all Pittsburgh hitters at plus-14.8 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24, while Grandal contributed plus-13.3 percent WPA. On the mound, Kyle Nicolas led Pittsburgh's relievers at plus-8.5 percent WPA, supported by Skenes at plus-5.5 percent and Chapman at plus-4.5 percent as the Pirates closed out the three-run victory.