Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers handed the Cleveland Guardians a 5-3 defeat on August 16, 2024, at American Family Field, building an insurmountable lead through the early innings and holding it wire to wire. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Brewers as a modest favorite at 52% pre-game win probability, and that number climbed steadily to 100% by the final out as Milwaukee's offense did its damage early and its pitching staff protected the margin.

The game's tone was set in the bottom of the first, where Willy Adames delivered a home run off Gavin Williams that swung win probability 5.9 points in Milwaukee's favor. The Brewers added a run in the third when Garrett Mitchell laced a double off Williams, a swing worth 6.1 percentage points, and Milwaukee tacked on another in the fourth to push the lead to 5-0. Mitchell was Milwaukee's most impactful offensive performer by a wide margin, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-11.7, while Adames posted a RE24 of plus-2.3, the best run-environment figure in the game. Brice Turang added plus-6.9 in WPA to round out the Brewers' most productive bats. Cleveland's best moment came in the top of the eighth, when David Fry's home run off Bryse Wilson moved the needle 7.6 points toward the Guardians, but that rally fell short at three runs and offered little more than cosmetic improvement on the final score.

Aaron Civale was the pitching story of the night, posting a WPA of plus-22.2 and keeping the Guardians' lineup largely in check throughout his outing. A Daniel Schneemann strikeout in the second inning, which cost Cleveland 9.2 percentage points, illustrated how thoroughly Civale neutralized Cleveland's threats when they arose. Joel Payamps and Nick Mears contributed plus-6.3 and plus-3.9 in WPA respectively as Milwaukee closed out the victory without significant trouble.