Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Atlanta Braves 3-2 at Angel Stadium on August 16, 2024, in a low-scoring affair that the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifted from a 45 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game remained scoreless through three innings before the fourth became the pivotal frame. Logan O'Hoppe's home run off Spencer Schwellenbach in the bottom of the fourth was the single most impactful play of the night, swinging win probability by plus 18.6 percent in the Angels' favor. Atlanta answered in that same inning on a Sean Murphy single off José Soriano that contributed a plus 10.3 percent swing, keeping the game tied at two. The Angels then pulled ahead for good in the bottom of the sixth when Mickey Moniak doubled off Pierce Johnson for a plus 14.3 percent win-probability swing, plating what proved to be the decisive run.

Atlanta's chances were further damaged by two costly groundball double plays. Ramón Laureano grounded into one in the top of the sixth off Brock Burke, costing the Braves 10.6 percent in win probability, and Whit Merrifield followed in the top of the eighth by grounding into another against Ben Joyce, a minus 14.1 percent swing that effectively ended any realistic comeback hopes. On the offensive side for Los Angeles, Marcell Ozuna led all batters with a plus 12.4 percent WPA and a 0.9 RE24, while Moniak's plus 10.6 percent WPA and Jarred Kelenic's plus 10.4 percent WPA rounded out a balanced Angels attack. Ben Joyce was the standout on the mound, posting a remarkable plus 29.2 percent WPA out of the bullpen, with Brock Burke adding plus 18.4 percent and Hunter Strickland contributing plus 8.5 percent as the Angels' relief corps shut Atlanta out over the final innings to preserve the one-run victory.