Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers defeated the Seattle Mariners 2-1 on August 15, 2024, at Comerica Park in a game that was decided almost entirely by a single swing in the bottom of the eighth inning. Seattle carried its lone run from the first inning through seven frames of scoreless baseball, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Detroit win, which opened at 51% before first pitch, remained in a relatively tight range until that moment changed everything.

With the Tigers trailing 1-0 in the bottom of the eighth, Javier Báez connected on a home run off Andrés Muñoz that swung win probability by +40.7 percentage points, the single most impactful play of the game. That blow erased Seattle's lead and gave Detroit the go-ahead run in one stroke. Parker Meadows added to the pressure with a walk off Yimi García that moved the needle another +8.6 points, while Justyn-Henry Malloy's strikeout against Muñoz registered as a +7.8-point swing from Detroit's perspective, keeping the rally from extending further damage to their own position. Akil Baddoo grounded out at -7.4 points, limiting Detroit's cushion to the two-run total that would ultimately hold. In the top of the ninth, Justin Turner's flyout off Jason Foley at -7.1 points closed the door on Seattle's final meaningful threat.

Báez finished as the game's most impactful offensive player at +38.4% WPA and +1.6 RE24, while Meadows posted +8.7% WPA and +0.5 RE24. On the mound, Bryce Miller led all pitchers at +46.5% WPA, with Kenta Maeda contributing +24.1% and Foley closing it out at +15.2%. The DiamondIQ model's estimate ended the game at 100% for Detroit, a reflection of how completely the Tigers converted a one-run deficit into a victory on the strength of one decisive inning.