New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Chicago White Sox 10-2 on August 14, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field, a result that aligned with the DiamondIQ model's estimate, which opened with the White Sox at just a 20% pre-game win probability and closed at 0%. New York scored once in the first, absorbed a White Sox run in the second and another in the fourth, then broke the game open with a three-run seventh and a six-run eighth to pull away decisively, finishing with 12 hits and no errors against nine hits and no errors for Chicago.

The single most consequential play of the night came in the top of the seventh, when catcher Austin Wells singled off Dominic Leone for a swing of plus 25.4% in win probability, the largest individual play of the game and the blow that effectively ended any remaining competitive tension. The White Sox had shown some life through the middle innings, most notably when Gavin Sheets homered off Will Warren in the second for a plus 7.7% swing and singled off Warren again in the fourth for another plus 9.5%, accounting for both Chicago runs and making Sheets the most impactful White Sox bat at plus 15.9% WPA and plus 1.6 RE24. Aaron Judge contributed a walk off Davis Martin in the sixth worth plus 7.6% in win probability, part of a night that totaled plus 13.7% WPA and a game-high plus 3.4 RE24 for the Yankees slugger.

On the pitching side, Davis Martin led all pitchers with plus 27.9% WPA for Chicago, a figure that reflected his ability to keep the game manageable through his innings before the Yankees' late eruption rendered his effort irrelevant. Michael Tonkin and Justin Anderson each added contributions above plus 8% WPA for the White Sox, though Anthony Volpe's strikeout off Anderson in the sixth registered as the second-biggest single play of the night in win-probability terms, a minus 11.5% swing that briefly stalled New York's momentum before Wells and the ensuing innings overwhelmed the hosts entirely.