Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers walked off the Seattle Mariners 3-2 in ten innings on August 14, 2024, at Comerica Park, erasing a deficit in the eighth inning and finishing the game in extras. The DiamondIQ model opened the night with Detroit's win probability at exactly 50 percent and closed it at 100 percent, with the bulk of that swing concentrated in two swings of the bat in the final frames.

Kerry Carpenter provided the turning point in the bottom of the eighth, connecting for a home run off Yimi García that shifted Detroit's win probability by plus-37.4 percent, the single biggest play of the game by that measure. The blast erased what had been a 1-0 Mariners lead built on Jorge Polanco's run-scoring single off Bryan Sammons in the fifth, and pushed the game to extra innings. Seattle had a chance to seize momentum back in the top of the tenth, but Cal Raleigh's flyout off Tyler Holton — which carried a win-probability swing of plus-14.3 percent from Detroit's perspective — kept the game tied and set the stage for the walk-off. Akil Baddoo then ended it with a double off Collin Snider in the bottom of the tenth, a hit worth plus-35.9 percent in win probability and the decisive blow of the night.

On the pitching side, Bryan Woo paced all pitchers with plus-40.0 percent WPA, while Bryan Sammons added plus-21.5 percent and Jason Foley contributed plus-13.5 percent in support of the Tigers' bullpen effort. Offensively, Baddoo led Detroit with a plus-35.9 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24, while Carpenter finished at plus-31.0 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Carpenter's eighth-inning blast as the true pivot of this game, with Baddoo delivering the finishing stroke in a tightly contested contest that was not decided until the final at-bat.