St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 9-2 on August 14, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, a game that was effectively decided by the third inning. The DiamondIQ model entered with Cincinnati holding a 54 percent home win probability, and that figure climbed steadily toward its final reading of 100 percent as the Reds built an insurmountable early advantage against Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third, where Jonathan India delivered the game's most impactful blow, a home run off Gibson that shifted win probability by plus-24.7 percent in the Reds' favor. Tyler Stephenson followed with another home run off Gibson in the same inning, adding another plus-6.7 percent swing and capping a four-run frame that put Cincinnati firmly in control. India finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, totaling plus-27.6 percent in cumulative WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.4, while Stephenson contributed plus-5.3 percent WPA on the night. The Reds added three more runs in the fifth and continued to pad the lead with single tallies in the seventh and eighth innings.

St. Louis managed some brief resistance in the sixth, with Brendan Donovan reaching on a double off Carson Spiers for a plus-4.6 percent WPA swing and Nolan Arenado adding a single for plus-3.5 percent, but a Paul Goldschmidt groundout in the fifth, which carried a minus-3.5 percent impact, illustrated the Cardinals' inability to capitalize when they had chances. On the pitching side, Sam Moll led Cincinnati's relievers with plus-5.3 percent WPA, and Spiers contributed plus-4.7 percent despite surrendering St. Louis's two sixth-inning runs, as the Cardinals finished with ten hits but only two runs on an error-marred evening.