New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Chicago White Sox 4-1 on August 13, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field, a result that the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming from early on. Chicago entered with just a 21% pre-game win probability, and that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out. New York scattered nine hits without committing an error, while Chicago managed five hits and likewise played clean defense in a loss that was effectively decided well before the late innings.

The game's decisive sequence centered on Juan Soto, whose two home runs off White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon were the dominant force of the night by win-probability impact. His third-inning shot was the single most consequential play of the contest, swinging New York's win probability by plus-18.1 percent and opening the scoring in what had been a scoreless game. Soto added another solo home run in the fifth inning off Cannon, a plus-9.2 percent swing that extended the lead to three and effectively put the game out of reach. Soto finished with a cumulative WPA of plus-34.4 percent and an RE24 of plus-4.0, numbers that reflect his singular hold on the game's outcome. The only notable Chicago moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Gavin Sheets doubled off Tommy Kahnle for a plus-12.8 percent swing, accounting for the lone White Sox run, though it amounted to nothing more than cosmetic damage at that stage.

On the pitching side, Nestor Cortes led all pitchers with a plus-16.6 percent WPA, while Jake Cousins contributed a plus-14.3 percent effort in relief to help close things out. Jared Shuster was the lone White Sox pitcher to post a positive WPA at plus-0.6 percent. Anthony Volpe added a modest plus-4.7 percent WPA contribution at the plate, supporting Soto in what was otherwise a thoroughly New York-controlled performance from start to finish.