St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 4-1 on August 13, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, a result that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 53 percent pre-game home win probability to a near-certain outcome by the final out. The game was largely a pitcher's duel through five innings before Cincinnati broke it open in the bottom of the sixth, and Hunter Greene's performance on the mound proved to be the defining factor of the evening, finishing as the game's top pitcher by win probability added at plus 27.6 percent.

The decisive sequence came in the sixth inning. Victor Scott II gave the Cardinals a brief glimmer in the top half with a double that added 7.8 percent to St. Louis's win probability off Greene, but Alec Burleson's strikeout to end that threat swung things back by 7.1 percent. Cincinnati answered immediately in the bottom half when Jeimer Candelario turned on an Erick Fedde offering for a home run, the single biggest play of the game at plus 13.1 percent win probability added, effectively sealing the Cardinals' fate. Ty France had set the tone earlier with a two-run home run off Fedde in the second inning, a swing worth plus 6.7 percent. Nolan Arenado provided the Cardinals' lone run with a seventh-inning home run off Greene, a play worth plus 5.9 percent that served as little more than a footnote.

Among position players, Candelario led all batters with plus 12.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.3, while France and Arenado checked in at plus 4.5 and plus 3.9 percent WPA respectively. Tony Santillan and Alexis Díaz contributed plus 4.5 and plus 2.4 percent WPA out of the Cincinnati bullpen to close things out cleanly, preserving a comfortable final margin.