Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| SF | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves edged the San Francisco Giants 4-3 in ten innings on August 13, 2024, at Oracle Park, completing a comeback that flipped what the DiamondIQ model had opened as a near-even contest — 51 percent in favor of San Francisco before first pitch — into a complete probability collapse for the home side by game's end.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth, where Travis d'Arnaud delivered the game's most impactful swing, a single off Randy Rodríguez that shifted win probability by plus-37.4 percent in Atlanta's favor. That hit stood as the single largest probability swing of the night and proved to be the dagger. Ramón Laureano's flyout against Rodríguez earlier in the inning had itself added 18.5 percent to Atlanta's chances, suggesting the Braves were methodically pressing the Giants' bullpen even before d'Arnaud connected. San Francisco's best chance to answer had come in the bottom of the eighth, when Matt Chapman drew a walk off Pierce Johnson to generate a plus-20.1 percent swing, but the threat evaporated when Michael Conforto grounded into a double play on the same pitcher, a sequence that represented a combined 22.2 percent swing against the Giants. In the bottom of the tenth, Heliot Ramos recorded a plus-31.6 percent flyout against Raisel Iglesias — a counterintuitive figure reflecting how close the Giants came to extending the game — but Atlanta held on.
On the pitching side, Charlie Morton led Atlanta's staff with a plus-16.5 percent WPA contribution, followed by Landen Roupp at plus-14.0 percent and Jordan Hicks at plus-13.5 percent. By WPA across all players, d'Arnaud finished at plus-38.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Ramos led the Giants at plus-38.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-0.6 despite being on the losing side — a reflection of how his plate appearances consistently found him in high-leverage situations. Matt Chapman's plus-26.2 percent WPA and RE24 of plus-1.4 made him San Francisco's most productive run-environment contributor, though it ultimately wasn't enough to overcome Atlanta's extra-inning punch.