New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox handed the New York Yankees a lopsided 12-2 defeat at Guaranteed Rate Field on August 12, 2024, in a game that was never particularly close despite the DiamondIQ model entering with only a 21% home win probability for Chicago. The White Sox methodically built their lead with two runs in the first, two more in the fourth, and then a six-run seventh inning that put the game firmly out of reach, finishing the night with 18 hits against a Yankees club that managed just 9 of their own.

The swing plays tell the story of how quickly New York's slim chances evaporated. The most damaging single moment came in the top of the second, when Aaron Judge flew out against Ky Bush, costing the Yankees 14.9% in win probability at a point when they still had a foothold in the game. Giancarlo Stanton followed with a strikeout against Bush in the top of the fourth that drained another 9.1%. Meanwhile, Chicago was doing equal damage in the other direction, with Korey Lee's home run off Luis Gil in the bottom of the fourth adding 10.0% to the White Sox ledger, and Dominic Fletcher's first-inning single off Gil worth 8.8%.

Ky Bush was the engine of the White Sox effort, finishing as the game's top pitcher by WPA at plus-24.7%, holding New York's powerful lineup in check through his outing. Among position players, Nicky Lopez led all batters at plus-16.7% WPA and posted an RE24 of plus-0.8, while Gavin Sheets was the most run-productive performer with an RE24 of plus-3.4 to go with plus-11.5% WPA. Anthony Volpe was the lone Yankee standout, generating plus-13.7% WPA and the game's best RE24 mark of plus-1.3, though his contributions were not nearly enough to offset what became a thorough defeat as the DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 100% in Chicago's favor.