Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks held off the Colorado Rockies 5-4 at Chase Field on August 12, 2024, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had anticipated from the outset, assigning Arizona a 72 percent pre-game win probability that ultimately resolved to 100 percent. Colorado built a 4-1 lead through four innings, but Arizona chipped away with a two-run sixth and a decisive two-run seventh that shifted the game's outcome for good.

The pivotal moment of the night came in the bottom of the seventh, when Joc Pederson grounded out against Tyler Kinley in a sequence that nonetheless carried a 30.0 percent win-probability swing in Arizona's favor, reflecting the high-leverage base-state context in which it occurred. Earlier in the sixth, Jake McCarthy's single off Bradley Blalock added 12.4 percent to Arizona's win probability, and Josh Bell followed with a double worth another 11.7 percent, the two hits combining to fuel the rally that pulled the Diamondbacks back into contention. Colorado had one final opportunity in the top of the ninth, where Michael Toglia singled off Justin Martinez to generate a 10.6 percent swing for the visitors, but Jake Cave's double play two batters later erased the threat with a 22.8 percent probability drop, effectively closing the door.

Pederson finished as the game's most impactful bat at plus 25.2 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, while Michael Toglia was the lone bright spot for Colorado at plus 14.7 percent WPA despite the loss. On the mound, Justin Martinez was the most valuable Arizona arm at plus 15.2 percent WPA, with Ryan Thompson contributing plus 10.8 percent in a bullpen effort that ultimately preserved the one-run victory.