Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres held off the Pittsburgh Pirates 2-1 on August 12, 2024, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 62 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent. The Padres broke a scoreless tie in the bottom of the seventh, with Jurickson Profar's double off Jake Woodford generating a 9.2 percent win-probability swing, followed moments later by Xander Bogaerts delivering a run-scoring single off Kyle Nicolas that added another 12.9 percent to San Diego's chances. The Padres added an insurance run in the bottom of the eighth, and while Oneil Cruz gave Pittsburgh a brief flicker of life with a two-out double off Tanner Scott in the top of the eighth that swung win probability 11.8 percent toward the Pirates, Joey Bart's subsequent strikeout effectively ended the threat and dropped Pittsburgh's chances by 8.5 percent.

From a personnel standpoint, the pitching staff carried the night for San Diego. Jake Woodford led all pitchers with a 25.9 percent win-probability contribution, and Joe Musgrove added 12.8 percent while Tanner Scott contributed 10.8 percent despite surrendering the Cruz double. On the offensive side, Cruz finished as the top Pirate contributor with a plus-12.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.7, while Andrew McCutchen paced all hitters with a plus-1.1 RE24 and 9.4 percent WPA. Pittsburgh finished with seven hits but committed one error, and a Rowdy Tellez pop out in the sixth inning, which cost the Pirates 8.7 percent in win probability, proved emblematic of their inability to capitalize in key moments against a San Diego club that controlled this game from the seventh inning on.