St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 6-1 on August 12, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate saw coming as the win probability climbed from a pre-game 52 percent in Cincinnati's favor all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game turned decisively in the third inning, when the Reds batted around against Sonny Gray and did the bulk of their damage. Spencer Steer delivered the single most impactful blow of the night, a home run off Gray that shifted win probability by plus-19.9 percent, the largest swing of the contest. Elly De La Cruz followed with his own home run off Gray in the same frame, adding another plus-10.2 percent swing and effectively closing the door on St. Louis before the game reached the midpoint. The Cardinals had briefly threatened in the top of the third when Nolan Arenado singled off Andrew Abbott for a plus-9.5 percent swing, but Cincinnati answered emphatically. Steer struck again in the fifth inning with a second home run off Gray, worth plus-14.5 percent in win probability, giving him two of the three largest plays of the game by that measure.

Steer was the unambiguous standout performer, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-33.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-4.0, numbers that reflected just how much of Cincinnati's offensive production ran through him. De La Cruz contributed a plus-10.4 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24 to complement Steer's performance. On the pitching side, Andrew Abbott was the story for the Reds, posting a plus-11.4 percent WPA while limiting St. Louis to one run on five hits with no errors charged against him. A Pedro Pagés groundout into a double play in the second inning, costing the Cardinals minus-8.0 percent in win probability at a moment when they still had a chance to put pressure on Abbott, proved to be one of several missed opportunities that allowed Cincinnati's lead to grow unchallenged. The Cardinals finished with just one run on five hits, while the Reds put together six runs on six hits and one error in a wire-to-wire comfortable victory.