Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves edged the San Francisco Giants 1-0 in ten innings at Oracle Park on August 12, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Giants victory falling from 52% before first pitch to 0% by the final out. Through nine innings the game was scoreless, each team finishing with four hits as starters Chris Sale and Blake Snell traded zeros. Sale was the dominant force for Atlanta, generating a game-high 38.2% WPA among pitchers, while Snell contributed 22.2% WPA in his own right for San Francisco before Randy Rodriguez added 14.5% in relief.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth inning, when Sean Murphy delivered a single off Taylor Rogers that shifted win probability by 32.0 percentage points, the single most impactful play of the game. Murphy finished as Atlanta's top offensive contributor at +21.3% WPA with a +0.4 RE24. Whit Merrifield's flyout two batters later actually moved the needle 21.1 percentage points in Atlanta's favor as well, advancing the game state toward the Braves' lone run. When San Francisco came to bat in the bottom of the tenth, Raisel Iglesias closed the door efficiently. Patrick Bailey's lineout ended the Giants' last real threat and represented a 31.6% swing in Atlanta's favor by win probability, making Bailey, despite going hitless in the decisive moment, the game's top-WPA batter at +23.0%. Michael Conforto's strikeout to end the ninth had similarly added 14.0% to Atlanta's ledger, underscoring how repeatedly the Giants came up empty against Braves pitching when it mattered most.