Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers walked off the Pittsburgh Pirates 6-5 in ten innings on August 11, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 64% pre-game home win probability to 100% by the final out. The game was largely quiet through the middle frames before Pittsburgh's Andrew McCutchen jolted the Pirates to life in the top of the eighth with a home run off Anthony Banda, a swing that shifted win probability 26.2 points in Pittsburgh's favor. The Pirates added another run in the tenth on a Bryan Reynolds single off Evan Phillips, a play worth +37.4% in win probability, giving Pittsburgh what briefly appeared to be a decisive cushion heading into the bottom half.

The Dodgers answered emphatically in the bottom of the tenth against David Bednar, erasing Pittsburgh's lead through two crushing blows. Enrique Hernández delivered a double that swung win probability 44.1 points toward Los Angeles, and Teoscar Hernández followed immediately with a walk-off single worth another 42.9 points, ending the contest. Pittsburgh's hopes were further damaged when Oneil Cruz grounded into a double play earlier in the tenth, a sequence that paradoxically added 16.6 points of win probability for the Dodgers by extinguishing a Pirates rally.

Enrique Hernández finished as the game's top performer by WPA at +42.2%, paired with a +0.9 RE24, while Teoscar Hernández posted +39.5% WPA and led all batters with a +1.7 RE24. On the mound, Tyler Glasnow led Dodgers pitchers with +17.0% WPA, followed by Joe Kelly at +13.5% and Aroldis Chapman at +10.9%, as Los Angeles's bullpen ultimately secured the win after the offense provided the late heroics.