Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 2 |
| AZ | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | - | 12 | 18 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks routed the Philadelphia Phillies 12-5 at Chase Field on August 11, 2024, turning what the DiamondIQ model opened as a near coin-flip — a 51 percent pre-game home win probability — into a runaway that closed at 100 percent by game's end. Arizona did the bulk of its damage in concentrated bursts, plating four runs in the third inning and three more in the fifth to effectively put the game away before the Phillies mounted a three-run seventh that proved far too little, far too late. Philadelphia's pitching staff absorbed 18 hits while committing two errors defensively, a combination that gave Arizona ample opportunities to extend the margin at every turn.
The third inning was the pivotal sequence of the night, with two swings against Cristopher Sánchez generating the game's most consequential win-probability shifts. Eugenio Suárez's double in the bottom of the third was the single biggest play of the game, adding 14.5 percent to Arizona's win probability, and Adrian Del Castillo followed with a single that pushed the needle another 11.4 percent in the Diamondbacks' favor. Kevin Newman added a double of his own in the same frame, contributing a further 5.8 percent swing against Sánchez. The fifth inning brought more trouble for Philadelphia, this time off Tanner Banks, as Jake McCarthy laced a triple that moved the win probability another 10.3 percent toward Arizona.
Measured by WPA across the full game, Del Castillo led all batters with a plus-15.5 mark and a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Suárez finished at plus-10.1 and Newman posted the game's best RE24 among position players at plus-2.4 to go with his plus-8.7 WPA. On the mound, Merrill Kelly was Arizona's standout performer, generating plus-11.1 percent in win probability added as he kept the Phillies' offense in check through his innings of work. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved steadily and decisively in Arizona's direction from the third inning onward, reflecting a game that was functionally decided well before the final out.