New York Mets at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners routed the New York Mets 12-1 at T-Mobile Park on August 11, 2024, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Seattle victory from a pre-game 55% all the way to 100% by the final out. Luis Severino absorbed the brunt of the damage, surrendering the game's most consequential blows across the second and fifth innings. Jorge Polanco opened the scoring in the bottom of the second with a home run that shifted win probability 7.4 points in Seattle's favor. The Mariners then broke the game open in the fifth, beginning with a Cal Raleigh home run off Severino that represented the single largest swing of the night at plus 14.6 percentage points. A Dominic Canzone double added another 6.1 points, and Randy Arozarena followed with a single worth 9.5 points, compounding a five-run frame that effectively ended the competitive portion of the evening. A Victor Robles strikeout was the lone play that nudged probability back toward New York, at minus 6.2 points, underscoring how thoroughly Seattle controlled the inning.

The Mariners finished with 12 runs on 12 hits and committed no errors, while the Mets managed just 1 run on 6 hits with 1 error. By WPA and RE24, Cal Raleigh was Seattle's most impactful bat, finishing plus 12.5% WP and plus 4.0 RE24, followed by Arozarena at plus 11.4% WP and plus 1.8 RE24, and Polanco at plus 7.9% WP and plus 1.4 RE24. On the mound, Luis Castillo was the dominant force, contributing plus 18.3% WP as he kept the Mets' lineup in check and provided Seattle's pitching staff a clean foundation atop which the offense could build the lopsided final margin.