Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | - | 9 | 16 | 0 |
The Story
The Colorado Rockies overcame an Atlanta Braves team that led for much of the contest, rallying to win 9-8 at Coors Field on August 11, 2024. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game giving Colorado only a 39 percent chance of winning at home, and through seven innings the Braves appeared to be making that pessimism well-founded. Atlanta plated a run in the first, added two more in the fourth on a Travis d'Arnaud home run off Kyle Freeland that carried a plus-19.6 percent win-probability swing, and then broke the game open with a four-run seventh highlighted by a Jorge Soler home run off Justin Lawrence, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-21.5 percent in Atlanta's favor. Heading into the bottom of the eighth, the Braves held an 8-2 lead and the model's estimate of a Colorado victory had shrunk to a negligible figure.
The eighth inning rewrote the entire story. Colorado erupted for seven runs against Braves reliever Joe Jiménez, and the single most consequential play of the game was a Brendan Rodgers double that swung win probability by plus-50.6 percent, the largest single-play shift of the contest. Ryan McMahon followed with a single off Jiménez that added another plus-12.9 percent, and by the time the inning concluded the Rockies had turned what looked like a comfortable Atlanta cushion into a 9-8 Colorado lead. Rodgers finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-49.9 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.9, while Soler led all players with a RE24 of plus-3.2 despite his team ultimately falling short.
On the mound, Victor Vodnik was the most valuable pitcher by WPA at plus-15.2 percent, a figure that reflects in part his induced ground-ball double play from Matt Olson to open the ninth, a play that cost Atlanta plus-22.8 percent in win probability and extinguished any meaningful chance of a Braves comeback. Peter Lambert contributed plus-13.0 percent WPA in relief, and Spencer Schwellenbach added plus-9.5 percent for Colorado. Atlanta finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, but the Rockies matched them with 16 hits of their own, and one historically improbable eighth inning was the difference. The DiamondIQ model closed with Colorado's win probability at 100 percent.