Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Cincinnati Reds 1-0 on August 10, 2024, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 64% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Milwaukee managed just two hits on the night, but the one that mattered came in the bottom of the eighth inning when Rhys Hoskins connected for a home run off Tony Santillan, a swing that shifted win probability by +23.3 points and stood as the decisive moment of an otherwise scoreless contest. Cincinnati had briefly threatened in the top of the eighth when Ty France singled off Tobias Myers for a +6.7% win-probability gain, but the Reds were ultimately unable to capitalize, finishing with three hits and no runs on the board.

The pitching staffs dominated throughout, and three Brewers arms were particularly effective by the DiamondIQ model's accounting. Nick Martinez led all pitchers with a +44.1% WPA contribution, followed by Tobias Myers at +30.3% and closer Devin Williams at +15.2%, the latter retiring Elly De La Cruz on a strikeout in the ninth that carried a -7.1% swing against Cincinnati's chances. On the offensive side, Hoskins finished as the game's top batter at +19.5% WPA and +0.7 RE24, while France's lone hit gave him a +8.6% WPA mark in a losing effort. Garrett Mitchell registered a +7.8% WPA strikeout in the eighth when Cincinnati needed a Brewers out to preserve pressure, though his overall contribution finished at +2.9% WPA and -0.5 RE24. Cincinnati's three hits simply never aligned into the run the Reds needed to match Milwaukee's lone, pivotal blow.