Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-1 on August 10, 2024 at Dodger Stadium, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 64 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Los Angeles built its lead in stages, scoring one run in the first and two more in the third, with the decisive moment of the game arriving in the bottom of the third when Gavin Lux singled off Pirates starter Paul Skenes, a hit that shifted win probability by 15.2 percent in the Dodgers' favor. Teoscar Hernández added to the damage in the fifth with a solo home run off Skenes, a swing worth another 6.3 percent in win probability for Los Angeles. Pittsburgh's best chance to claw back came in the top of the sixth against Alex Vesia, when Oneil Cruz drew a walk that nudged the Pirates' chances up 5.5 percent, but Joey Bart's lineout and Rowdy Tellez's pop out wiped out that momentum entirely, costing Pittsburgh 4.9 and 4.2 percent in win probability respectively.

Lux finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a combined WPA of plus-16.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.7, while Hernández contributed plus-8.4 percent WPA and plus-0.9 RE24. Nick Ahmed also registered a positive contribution at plus-3.7 percent WPA. On the mound, River Ryan was the standout performer among the Dodgers pitchers with a WPA of plus-14.4 percent, supported by Michael Kopech at plus-3.5 percent and Evan Phillips at plus-3.0 percent. Pittsburgh managed nine hits on the night but could not convert them into runs until a solo score in the top of the ninth, by which point Los Angeles had long secured control of the contest.